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Polling . . . Polling . . . Polling
Who's ahead going into the critical final weekend?
Updated 4/30 @ 6:00 p.m.
by Alan Lange We now have two polls to compare and contrast.
The WJTV Poll was conducted on April 26-27 by SurveyUSA, and polled 783 registered voters. Survey accuracy is +/- 3.4%. Additional detail on this poll can be found here. The WAPT Poll was conducted by Mason Dixon and polled 500 likely voters with an accuracy of +/- 4.5% Analysis Both polls give Melton a strong overall lead in relative terms over Johnson. In a primary where the projected total votes will be about 45,000 votes (about half of the registered voters in Jackson) in the primary, the WJTV poll which contacted 783 registred voters (1.7% of projected vote count) is a pretty big deal and is statistically very significant. WJTV's poll has Melton running the table across all age/race/gender groups. WAPT's poll of likely voters shows it significantly closer and does take into account the "self described" Democratic vote, which shows Johnson and Melton in a statistical dead heat, which I think is probably right on. When "crossovers" are factored in, that's where Johnson gets in trouble. My bet . . . The African American vote will likely split close to down the middle with no overwhelming winner. All polling has shown that so far. Voters in Wards 1 and 7, which will likely account for 13-14,000 votes or so will go overwhelmingly for Melton - probably 75%+. In a race where 22-23,000 votes will win the primary, having a 10-12,000 vote head start out of those two wards may be too much for Johnson to overcome. Ward 6 is pretty conservative and will likely split and may even go Melton (as Marshand Crisler only won in 2001 by 100 votes against a strong Republican contender). Ward 6 probably means 3,000 votes for Melton. Wards 2, 3, 4 & 6 may lean Johnson, but probably not to the degree he needs. You can do your own analysis by projecting from vote totals in the 2001 general election. For Johnson to have any hope, he would need to be putting up 70-75% numbers in the African American community - hence his strategy of "priveleged and powerful", "our progess has enemies" and "they can't turn us back". Based on all the polling data to date, it doesn't look like that kind of run in the cards. 
Comments
Funny. If you take the undecideds from the MD/WAPT poll and you allocate 70% to the challenger (the "incumbent rule"), the two polls would look almost identical. The breakdowns within the polls don't follow that line of reasoning, but then again, we don't have every detail as to how the questions were asked and how the participants were selected. Posted by: Alan at April 29, 2005 11:59 AMI have to say I was pretty flabbergasted by those numbers... Tuesday is going to be really interesting. Posted by: Chris Lawrence at April 29, 2005 04:44 PMExcellent reporting on this site! I wish this would continue past the elections and become a full time board about Jackson politics! I'm in south Jackson (if south of Fortification can be known as SoFo, I'd like to suggest that my area be known as SoJax! Almost as fashionable as SoHo!) Thanks! Nolonger Posted by: Nolonger Forharvey at April 30, 2005 03:45 PMNotice the update here. I found the WJTV poll detail and it is impressive. That poll looks to very closely mirror Jackson's demographics re: age/race/gender. Definitely worth a minute or two to browse through. Posted by: Alan at April 30, 2005 06:24 PMGreat web site Alan! Thanks for getting the facts out about crime in the Jackson area. You are one of the few people who were willing to face the facts and not hide behind the "perception" facade. I too would like to see an on-going site like this that will report the factual information about crime, housing, etc. without the spin that we find in other publications and web pages. Posted by: housing mama at May 2, 2005 09:53 PMMama, Thank you. You might want to go check out our sister web site JacksonCrime.org. It has been going for over two years and has a wealth of info on the crime subject. This site will definitely be in effect past the mayoral elections, but I can't tell you exactly how it is going to look or run. There will be more details on that soon. 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